Copa Libertadores Final
Global 2-3
Peñarol vs Grêmio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.1%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17%
1-0
13.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
25%
Draw
0-0
8.6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
19.9%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
13.6%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+27%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 1983 |
NAC
1 - 2
PEÑ
57%
25%
18%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 1983 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
CRI
76%
16%
8%
|
85 | 38 | 47 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 1983 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
NAC
51%
27%
22%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | +1 |
| 18 Jun. 1983 |
CRI
0 - 0
PEÑ
14%
22%
64%
|
84 | 37 | 47 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 1982 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
ASV
51%
25%
25%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jul. 1983 |
EST
3 - 3
GRE
57%
24%
19%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 1983 |
GRE
2 - 1
AME
88%
7%
4%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 1983 |
AME
1 - 0
GRE
43%
26%
32%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | -1 |
| 21 Jun. 1983 |
GRE
2 - 1
EST
48%
28%
24%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | +1 |
| 05 Jun. 1983 |
FLA
1 - 3
GRE
65%
20%
15%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |