Copa Libertadores Quarter-finals
First-leg 1-0
Peñarol vs Flamengo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
27.7%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.3%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
2.3%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.4%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.3%
26.5%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.5%
45.8%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
0-1
12%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.5%
0-2
8.6%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13.7%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.9%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
FLA
0 - 1
PEÑ
61%
22%
17%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
PEÑ
4 - 0
JUN
46%
26%
27%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
CSM
1 - 2
PEÑ
44%
26%
30%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2024 |
STR
1 - 0
PEÑ
32%
25%
43%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
PEÑ
0 - 0
CEL
51%
27%
23%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Flamengo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 2024 |
FLA
0 - 1
PEÑ
61%
22%
17%
|
87 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
FLA
1 - 1
VAS
47%
26%
27%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
FLA
1 - 0
BAH
46%
25%
30%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
COR
2 - 1
FLA
47%
25%
28%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2024 |
BAH
0 - 1
FLA
47%
25%
28%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | -1 |