Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.4%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.5%
27%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27%
31%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
18.7%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.5%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+29%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
10
4º
8º
4º
14
1º
4º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
14 | 14 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 12 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
11 | 11 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
10 | 10 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 9 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 9 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 8 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 4 |
8º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul. 2023 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
BOS
58%
25%
17%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
DAN
1 - 0
PEÑ
26%
27%
47%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2023 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
TOR
61%
23%
16%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2023 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
AMF
35%
28%
38%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
MWA
0 - 0
PEÑ
27%
26%
47%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
DEF
2 - 1
DAN
66%
21%
14%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2023 |
BOS
0 - 1
DEF
40%
26%
34%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | +1 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
DEF
3 - 0
LUZ
63%
21%
16%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
RIV
1 - 1
DEF
41%
26%
33%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2023 |
DEF
2 - 0
MWA
61%
22%
17%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | +1 |