Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.9%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.2%
4-0
5%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.4%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.9%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.7%
12.4%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 1976 |
PEÑ
0 - 1
IND
63%
19%
18%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 1976 |
RIV
3 - 0
PEÑ
77%
14%
9%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | -1 |
| 15 Jun. 1976 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
RIV
47%
25%
28%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | +1 |
| 26 May. 1976 |
IND
1 - 0
PEÑ
60%
23%
17%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Apr. 1976 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
UNI
73%
16%
12%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | +1 |