Peñarol vs Caracas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.9%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.1%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
13.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
21.7%
14.4%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+25%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
DEP
1 - 2
PEÑ
30%
28%
42%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
CEN
1 - 0
PEÑ
56%
23%
21%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
PEÑ
0 - 0
NAC
42%
27%
31%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
RAC
1 - 2
PEÑ
39%
27%
34%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
PEÑ
3 - 0
CER
55%
25%
20%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Caracas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
MET
0 - 0
CFC
41%
28%
31%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
CFC
1 - 4
ATM
16%
25%
60%
|
71 | 89 | 18 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
CFC
1 - 2
BAR
63%
23%
15%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | -1 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
MON
1 - 1
CFC
37%
28%
36%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 2024 |
CFC
0 - 1
ANG
61%
23%
16%
|
72 | 63 | 9 | -1 |