Intercontinental Final
Global 7-2
Peñarol vs Benfica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.9%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.6%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
5%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.9%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
8%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.2%
25.9%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
6%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 1961 |
SLB
1 - 0
PEÑ
87%
8%
5%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1961 |
PAL
1 - 1
PEÑ
70%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1961 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
PAL
71%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1961 |
OLI
1 - 2
PEÑ
57%
20%
23%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1961 |
PEÑ
3 - 1
OLI
63%
18%
18%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep. 1961 |
SLB
1 - 0
PEÑ
87%
8%
5%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 1961 |
VST
4 - 1
SLB
18%
20%
62%
|
88 | 60 | 28 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1961 |
SLB
3 - 2
FCB
73%
14%
12%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1961 |
BEL
0 - 4
SLB
35%
23%
42%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1961 |
SLB
8 - 0
SPC
84%
10%
6%
|
88 | 60 | 28 | 0 |