Copa do Brasil 1/32
Global 4-4
Peñarol AC vs Santa Cruz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.8%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.3%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.4%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.6%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.5%
32.8%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.7%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol AC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 2012 |
PEN
1 - 1
PRI
55%
23%
22%
|
45 | 38 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 Feb. 2012 |
PRI
1 - 1
PEN
34%
26%
41%
|
46 | 38 | 8 | -1 |
| 25 Feb. 2012 |
NAC
0 - 0
PEN
51%
23%
26%
|
45 | 45 | 0 | +1 |
| 22 Feb. 2012 |
PEN
2 - 1
FAS
40%
25%
34%
|
45 | 46 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2012 |
PEN
0 - 0
SAO
49%
24%
27%
|
45 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Santa Cruz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
SAN
2 - 0
SER
60%
22%
19%
|
46 | 42 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2012 |
YPI
1 - 0
SAN
34%
26%
41%
|
47 | 39 | 8 | -1 |
| 25 Feb. 2012 |
SAN
6 - 0
PET
51%
24%
25%
|
46 | 44 | 2 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 2012 |
PET
2 - 1
SAN
39%
26%
35%
|
46 | 43 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2012 |
SAN
1 - 3
SPO
15%
21%
64%
|
47 | 69 | 22 | -1 |