Penafiel vs Naval analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.1%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
8%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.4%
2-0
11.3%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.1%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.6%
14.3%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov. 1999 |
ESP
1 - 2
PEN
26%
26%
49%
|
63 | 52 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1999 |
PEN
1 - 1
ACA
59%
23%
18%
|
63 | 59 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1999 |
IMO
0 - 2
PEN
27%
25%
48%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1999 |
PEN
0 - 2
VAR
58%
23%
18%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 1999 |
PEN
2 - 2
LEC
56%
24%
21%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Naval
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov. 1999 |
NAV
1 - 1
FEL
45%
26%
29%
|
55 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1999 |
SPC
1 - 1
NAV
48%
25%
27%
|
55 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1999 |
NAV
0 - 0
SCF
48%
25%
28%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1999 |
LEC
3 - 2
NAV
61%
22%
17%
|
56 | 61 | 5 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 1999 |
MAI
2 - 4
NAV
67%
19%
14%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | +2 |