Penafiel vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.2%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.4%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.2%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
37.5%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
9.7%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.7%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.9%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Dec. 2004 |
SLB
1 - 0
PEN
80%
14%
5%
|
63 | 86 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 2004 |
PEN
1 - 3
VIT
46%
27%
27%
|
63 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2004 |
SPB
0 - 1
PEN
69%
20%
12%
|
63 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2004 |
PEN
3 - 1
ACA
42%
26%
33%
|
62 | 66 | 4 | +1 |
| 21 Nov. 2004 |
MOR
2 - 2
PEN
58%
23%
18%
|
62 | 68 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec. 2004 |
NAC
2 - 0
BEL
52%
24%
24%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 2004 |
EST
2 - 0
NAC
35%
27%
38%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | -1 |
| 04 Dec. 2004 |
NAC
0 - 3
UDL
47%
26%
28%
|
71 | 75 | 4 | -1 |
| 28 Nov. 2004 |
RIO
4 - 1
NAC
47%
26%
27%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | -1 |
| 19 Nov. 2004 |
NAC
1 - 1
MAR
52%
25%
22%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | 0 |