Penafiel vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.4%
1-0
13.3%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
27.7%
Draw
0-0
9.9%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
27.7%
27.3%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
9.7%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
17.5%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 1991 |
UNM
3 - 0
PEN
43%
28%
28%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1991 |
PEN
2 - 1
EST
43%
30%
27%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1991 |
BEL
1 - 0
PEN
60%
24%
16%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1991 |
SAL
1 - 0
PEN
45%
28%
28%
|
69 | 64 | 5 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 1991 |
FAR
2 - 0
PEN
54%
25%
21%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 1991 |
NAC
3 - 1
VIT
44%
29%
27%
|
66 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1991 |
GFC
2 - 0
NAC
48%
27%
26%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | -1 |
| 30 Mar. 1991 |
NAC
0 - 0
BMA
50%
26%
24%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1991 |
NAC
0 - 2
SLB
18%
27%
55%
|
67 | 88 | 21 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1991 |
SCP
3 - 0
NAC
75%
17%
8%
|
67 | 88 | 21 | 0 |