Copa do Brasil 1/32
Global 5-4
Paysandu vs Peñarol AC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.2%
Win probability
2.63
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.9%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.5%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.6%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.2%
14.3%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.3%
8.4%
Win probability
0.76
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
6.1%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paysandu
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb. 2011 |
REC
3 - 2
PAY
19%
20%
61%
|
58 | 42 | 16 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2011 |
PEN
2 - 3
PAY
20%
21%
60%
|
58 | 44 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2011 |
PAY
5 - 2
AGU
61%
20%
18%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 Feb. 2011 |
REM
3 - 1
PAY
34%
24%
42%
|
58 | 52 | 6 | -1 |
| 06 Feb. 2011 |
PAY
4 - 3
CAM
79%
14%
7%
|
58 | 41 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol AC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb. 2011 |
PEN
4 - 1
AME
60%
21%
19%
|
43 | 36 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2011 |
PEN
2 - 3
PAY
20%
21%
60%
|
44 | 58 | 14 | -1 |
| 20 Feb. 2011 |
SUL
0 - 2
PEN
26%
23%
51%
|
43 | 25 | 18 | +1 |
| 06 Feb. 2011 |
OPE
2 - 2
PEN
19%
22%
60%
|
44 | 17 | 27 | -1 |
| 29 Jan. 2011 |
PEN
2 - 2
RIO
71%
18%
11%
|
44 | 27 | 17 | 0 |