Vaprus Pärnu vs Levadia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
21.6%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.3%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.5%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
5.6%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
54.6%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
0-1
11.5%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.4%
0-2
9.9%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.8%
0-3
5.7%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.5%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.4%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+17%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
6º
10º
9º
67
1º
2º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
67 | 84 |
1º
|
97.5% | |
|
2º
|
55 | 72 |
2º
|
49% | |
|
4º
|
53 | 69 |
3º
|
32% | |
|
3º
|
55 | 69 |
4º
|
25% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 40 |
5º
|
31.5% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 40 |
6º
|
35% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 38 |
7º
|
32.5% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 33 |
8º
|
39% | |
|
|
8º
|
25 | 32 |
9º
|
59% | |
|
10º
|
14 | 22 |
10º
|
94% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 97.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 2.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
36.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
59% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
4.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vaprus Pärnu
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 2024 |
PAR
11 - 0
TAO
85%
11%
5%
|
60 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
TAM
0 - 1
PAR
53%
25%
22%
|
59 | 62 | 3 | +1 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
KUR
1 - 1
PAR
60%
22%
18%
|
59 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 0
TRA
43%
25%
32%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
PAR
2 - 0
NOM
28%
23%
49%
|
57 | 64 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Levadia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
NOM
0 - 1
LEV
27%
24%
48%
|
75 | 62 | 13 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2024 |
LEV
0 - 1
OSI
27%
25%
49%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | -1 |
| 25 Jul. 2024 |
OSI
5 - 1
LEV
54%
24%
22%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
LEV
0 - 0
KUR
68%
20%
12%
|
76 | 63 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2024 |
LEV
0 - 0
FAS
52%
23%
25%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | -1 |