Serie C Playoffs Ascenso Quarter-finals
Global 4-2
Parma vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.9%
Win probability
2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
5.4%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.6%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.9%
2-0
16.3%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
<0%
+2
22.6%
1-0
16.3%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
26.1%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
18.8%
8.3%
Win probability
0.51
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-22%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Parma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 2017 |
PAR
2 - 0
PIA
67%
21%
13%
|
65 | 53 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2017 |
PIA
0 - 0
PAR
22%
25%
53%
|
65 | 53 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2017 |
PAR
1 - 0
REG
70%
20%
10%
|
65 | 52 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2017 |
TER
0 - 0
PAR
16%
23%
61%
|
66 | 49 | 17 | -1 |
| 24 Apr. 2017 |
PAR
0 - 1
FCS
78%
16%
6%
|
67 | 47 | 20 | -1 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 2017 |
ABN
0 - 0
ASL
45%
27%
28%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2017 |
ASL
1 - 0
ABN
48%
27%
26%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2017 |
ARZ
1 - 2
ASL
52%
26%
22%
|
49 | 53 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2017 |
GER
1 - 0
ASL
56%
25%
19%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | -1 |
| 29 Apr. 2017 |
ASL
2 - 0
CAR
53%
24%
23%
|
49 | 47 | 2 | +1 |