Serie A - Relegation tie-breaker Final
Global 2-1
Parma vs Bologna analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.8%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.4%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.1%
19%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Parma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2005 |
LEC
3 - 3
PAR
44%
25%
31%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2005 |
PAR
0 - 0
SIE
62%
22%
16%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2005 |
JUV
2 - 0
PAR
70%
18%
11%
|
83 | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2005 |
PAR
2 - 1
ROM
45%
25%
30%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2005 |
CSK
3 - 0
PAR
53%
25%
22%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Bologna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May. 2005 |
BOL
0 - 0
SAM
51%
26%
23%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2005 |
CHI
1 - 0
BOL
47%
26%
26%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2005 |
BOL
1 - 2
BRE
51%
24%
24%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 08 May. 2005 |
REG
1 - 1
BOL
40%
28%
32%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2005 |
JUV
2 - 1
BOL
74%
17%
9%
|
81 | 91 | 10 | 0 |