Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 3-3
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.3%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
8%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.3%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
29.4%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.8%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Palmeiras
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
SAO
1 - 1
PAL
53%
25%
22%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2011 |
PAL
1 - 1
BAH
65%
23%
13%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
VAS
1 - 0
PAL
45%
27%
28%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2011 |
VAS
2 - 0
PAL
46%
27%
27%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | -1 |
| 06 Aug. 2011 |
PAL
0 - 0
GRE
45%
26%
29%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
VAS
1 - 1
FLU
42%
26%
31%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2011 |
AVA
0 - 2
VAS
33%
25%
42%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
VAS
1 - 0
PAL
45%
27%
28%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2011 |
VAS
2 - 0
PAL
46%
27%
27%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2011 |
BOT
4 - 0
VAS
52%
23%
25%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |