Paulista A1 Final
Global 2-1
Palmeiras vs Santos FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.7%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
8.3%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.5%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.7%
13.5%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Palmeiras
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr. 2024 |
SLO
1 - 1
PAL
31%
28%
41%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
SAN
1 - 0
PAL
32%
27%
41%
|
91 | 86 | 5 | -1 |
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
PAL
1 - 0
NOV
77%
15%
8%
|
91 | 81 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
PAL
5 - 1
PPE
82%
13%
5%
|
91 | 76 | 15 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
PAL
1 - 0
BOT
85%
11%
4%
|
90 | 70 | 20 | +1 |
Matches
Santos FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
SAN
1 - 0
PAL
32%
27%
41%
|
86 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2024 |
SAN
3 - 1
BRA
39%
25%
36%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2024 |
SAN
0 - 0
POR
85%
11%
4%
|
86 | 61 | 25 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
SAN
3 - 2
INT
83%
13%
5%
|
86 | 63 | 23 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
BRA
1 - 0
SAN
56%
24%
21%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |