Copa Libertadores Final
Global 1-2
Palmeiras vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.3%
Win probability
2.73
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.8%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.3%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
8.6%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
5.5%
5-2
1.8%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.5%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
8%
4-2
3.2%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.6%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.5%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
15.9%
13.8%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Palmeiras
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jun. 1961 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
PAL
71%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1961 |
PAL
4 - 1
SFE
63%
19%
18%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1961 |
SFE
2 - 2
PAL
55%
21%
24%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1961 |
PAL
1 - 0
IND
62%
19%
18%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 May. 1961 |
IND
0 - 2
PAL
59%
20%
21%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jun. 1961 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
PAL
71%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1961 |
OLI
1 - 2
PEÑ
57%
20%
23%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1961 |
PEÑ
3 - 1
OLI
63%
18%
18%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | +1 |
| 14 May. 1961 |
UNI
2 - 0
PEÑ
51%
22%
27%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | -1 |
| 19 Apr. 1961 |
PEÑ
5 - 0
UNI
67%
17%
16%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | +1 |