Paide vs Vaprus Pärnu analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.9%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2%
5-0
4%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.9%
4-0
8%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.3%
3-0
12.9%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.5%
2-0
15.6%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.2%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.1%
13.5%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
1.9%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
13.5%
5.5%
Win probability
0.5
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
4.4%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
41
2º
4º
4º
24
6º
10º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
61 | 82 |
1º
|
88.5% | |
|
2º
|
49 | 73 |
2º
|
66.5% | |
|
3º
|
45 | 66 |
3º
|
50% | |
|
|
4º
|
41 | 65 |
4º
|
60.5% | |
|
5º
|
28 | 40 |
5º
|
51.5% | |
|
6º
|
25 | 37 |
6º
|
23% | |
|
8º
|
24 | 36 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 36 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
|
7º
|
24 | 33 |
9º
|
34.5% | |
|
10º
|
12 | 27 |
10º
|
71.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
39% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
60.5% | 55.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 34.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 10% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paide
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun. 2024 |
TAL
2 - 5
PAI
33%
27%
40%
|
75 | 65 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
FLO
2 - 0
PAI
53%
24%
23%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2024 |
PAI
0 - 1
LEV
45%
25%
31%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2024 |
LEV
4 - 2
PAI
48%
24%
28%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | -1 |
| 22 May. 2024 |
PAI
0 - 2
KAL
54%
24%
23%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Vaprus Pärnu
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun. 2024 |
PAR
1 - 4
TRA
44%
25%
32%
|
57 | 60 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2024 |
NOM
2 - 1
PAR
66%
20%
14%
|
57 | 64 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2024 |
KUR
2 - 2
PAR
60%
22%
18%
|
57 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2024 |
PAR
1 - 1
TAM
45%
24%
31%
|
57 | 58 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 2
LEV
18%
23%
58%
|
57 | 76 | 19 | 0 |