Paços de Ferreira vs Penafiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.9%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
19.5%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.1%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-16%
+19%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
23
3º
18º
14º
37
1º
4º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
37 | 62 |
1º
|
51.5% | |
|
3º
|
35 | 56 |
2º
|
24.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
37 | 56 |
3º
|
16.5% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 53 |
4º
|
15% | |
|
9º
|
28 | 52 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 52 |
6º
|
11.5% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 51 |
7º
|
8.5% | |
|
10º
|
28 | 49 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
8º
|
29 | 48 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
14º
|
22 | 46 |
10º
|
8% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 45 |
11º
|
19% | |
|
11º
|
26 | 45 |
12º
|
15.5% | |
|
12º
|
25 | 43 |
13º
|
15.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
23 | 41 |
14º
|
21% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 36 |
15º
|
24% | |
|
15º
|
22 | 35 |
16º
|
26% | |
|
17º
|
16 | 32 |
17º
|
46.5% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 22 |
18º
|
86.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 38% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 16.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
89% | 45.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
8% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
3% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Paços de Ferreira
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
LEX
3 - 3
PAÇ
33%
29%
37%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
PAÇ
1 - 2
MAR
39%
26%
35%
|
69 | 73 | 4 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
MAF
0 - 1
PAÇ
45%
27%
27%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
PAR
1 - 1
PAÇ
8%
19%
72%
|
68 | 42 | 26 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
PAÇ
2 - 1
OSL
83%
13%
5%
|
68 | 44 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
PEN
2 - 2
TON
36%
27%
37%
|
63 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
VIZ
1 - 2
PEN
65%
21%
14%
|
62 | 72 | 10 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
PEN
4 - 3
OLI
47%
26%
27%
|
62 | 58 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
BOA
1 - 5
PEN
69%
19%
12%
|
61 | 74 | 13 | +1 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
MOR
2 - 0
PEN
79%
14%
7%
|
61 | 81 | 20 | 0 |