UD Ourense vs CD Lugo B analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.6%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.5%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.3%
21.1%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+41%
+16%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
3º
7º
3º
4
6º
9º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
8º
|
4 | 67 |
1º
|
28% | |
|
5º
|
4 | 65 |
2º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
4 | 61 |
3º
|
10% | |
|
1º
|
6 | 58 |
4º
|
12% | |
|
4º
|
6 | 58 |
5º
|
10% | |
|
|
7º
|
4 | 53 |
6º
|
11.5% | |
|
15º
|
0 | 52 |
7º
|
8.5% | |
|
3º
|
6 | 47 |
8º
|
8.5% | |
|
12º
|
1 | 45 |
9º
|
8.5% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 45 |
10º
|
7.5% | |
|
13º
|
1 | 44 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 43 |
12º
|
6.5% | |
|
2º
|
6 | 43 |
13º
|
8.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 40 |
14º
|
10.5% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 39 |
15º
|
8.5% | |
|
9º
|
3 | 37 |
16º
|
15.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 28 |
17º
|
19% | |
|
14º
|
0 | 27 |
18º
|
36.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
13.5% | 4% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
47% | 27% |
|
Mid-table
|
39% | 66% |
|
Relegation
|
0.5% | 3% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UD Ourense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
RCV
1 - 1
UDO
60%
24%
16%
|
34 | 43 | 9 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
UDO
2 - 0
NOI
73%
16%
11%
|
33 | 24 | 9 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2024 |
UDO
1 - 2
CEL
9%
18%
73%
|
33 | 67 | 34 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 2024 |
GRA
2 - 1
UDO
65%
19%
16%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | -1 |
| 02 Jun. 2024 |
UDO
3 - 3
GRA
46%
26%
29%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
CD Lugo B
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
POL
0 - 0
BET
55%
23%
22%
|
33 | 28 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
BAR
0 - 1
POL
41%
26%
33%
|
32 | 32 | 0 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
UPH
1 - 0
POL
26%
25%
50%
|
33 | 24 | 9 | -1 |
| 05 May. 2024 |
POL
0 - 1
BAR
63%
21%
17%
|
34 | 26 | 8 | -1 |
| 01 May. 2024 |
ARZ
1 - 2
POL
17%
22%
61%
|
33 | 18 | 15 | +1 |