Copa Colombia Last 16
Global 1-5
Once Caldas vs At. Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
22%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.6%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
5.6%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.3%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
53.8%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
0-1
11.8%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
9.9%
1-3
5.4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.5%
0-3
5.5%
1-4
2.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.2%
0-4
2.3%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.2%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Once Caldas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May. 2022 |
ALI
2 - 0
ONC
42%
27%
30%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2022 |
ONC
0 - 1
CAL
33%
28%
39%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2022 |
NAC
0 - 0
ONC
67%
21%
13%
|
70 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2022 |
NAC
3 - 0
ONC
66%
20%
14%
|
70 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2022 |
ONC
1 - 0
COR
51%
26%
23%
|
70 | 64 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 1
PER
63%
22%
15%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2022 |
IND
0 - 0
NAC
29%
26%
45%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2022 |
NAC
0 - 0
ONC
67%
21%
13%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2022 |
NAC
3 - 0
ONC
66%
20%
14%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2022 |
AGU
1 - 0
NAC
17%
23%
60%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |