Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 0-1
Olimpia vs Independiente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.9%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.8%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
26.2%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.2%
27.9%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.2%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
7.5%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Olimpia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2015 |
LIB
1 - 1
OLI
43%
27%
30%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2015 |
IND
1 - 0
OLI
51%
25%
25%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2015 |
OLI
4 - 2
LQE
51%
25%
24%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2015 |
AGU
1 - 2
OLI
38%
26%
36%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2015 |
SAN
0 - 4
OLI
23%
27%
50%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2015 |
LAN
1 - 1
IND
50%
27%
24%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2015 |
IND
1 - 0
OLI
51%
25%
25%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 19 Sep. 2015 |
IND
2 - 1
CHI
69%
20%
11%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2015 |
IND
1 - 0
ARS
55%
24%
21%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | +1 |
| 12 Sep. 2015 |
IND
3 - 0
RAC
44%
27%
30%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |