Nueva Concepción vs FC La Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.5%
Win probability
2.44
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.9%
4-0
5.8%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.4%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.1%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.4%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.5%
16.2%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.2%
10.3%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
+1335%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
14
9º
16º
11º
19
1º
13º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
21 | 35 |
1º
|
30% | |
|
3º
|
19 | 33 |
2º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 32 |
3º
|
12% | |
|
13º
|
12 | 31 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 31 |
5º
|
11.5% | |
|
14º
|
12 | 30 |
6º
|
5.5% | |
|
6º
|
16 | 29 |
7º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
14 | 28 |
8º
|
11.5% | |
|
11º
|
13 | 27 |
9º
|
8% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 27 |
10º
|
8.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
14 | 25 |
11º
|
8% | |
|
16º
|
11 | 25 |
12º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
19 | 23 |
13º
|
13.5% | |
|
15º
|
11 | 22 |
14º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
14 | 22 |
15º
|
16% | |
|
10º
|
14 | 22 |
16º
|
11% | |
|
17º
|
9 | 20 |
17º
|
17.5% | |
|
20º
|
4 | 15 |
18º
|
31.5% | |
|
19º
|
5 | 12 |
19º
|
29% | |
|
18º
|
8 | 12 |
20º
|
36% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
3% | 0.5% |
|
Play-offs
|
18.5% | 5% |
|
Mid-table
|
78.5% | 94.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nueva Concepción
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2024 |
COA
1 - 2
NUE
56%
23%
21%
|
44 | 54 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
NUE
2 - 2
PFC
83%
11%
6%
|
44 | 18 | 26 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
SPD
2 - 0
NUE
52%
23%
25%
|
45 | 48 | 3 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
NUE
1 - 0
QUI
44%
25%
31%
|
44 | 46 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
DFC
3 - 1
NUE
47%
23%
30%
|
45 | 46 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
FC La Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2024 |
FCL
2 - 0
DJC
10%
15%
76%
|
12 | 46 | 34 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
VEN
2 - 1
FCL
82%
12%
6%
|
12 | 54 | 42 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
FCL
5 - 2
IZT
11%
17%
72%
|
9 | 55 | 46 | +3 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
FCL
1 - 0
COA
14%
20%
66%
|
8 | 53 | 45 | +1 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
PFC
0 - 3
FCL
48%
21%
31%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | +1 |