Coppa Italia Last 16
Global 2-4
Novara vs Roma analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.3%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.5%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
29%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.1%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.1%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 1941 |
ROM
2 - 2
NOV
66%
19%
15%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1941 |
BAR
0 - 2
NOV
47%
24%
29%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | +1 |
| 04 May. 1941 |
VNZ
3 - 0
NOV
61%
19%
20%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | -1 |
| 27 Apr. 1941 |
NOV
5 - 1
ATL
41%
23%
35%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 Apr. 1941 |
TOR
5 - 1
NOV
72%
16%
13%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Roma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 1941 |
ROM
2 - 2
NOV
66%
19%
15%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1941 |
ROM
6 - 1
FAN
79%
13%
8%
|
79 | 49 | 30 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1941 |
ROM
0 - 0
TRI
63%
20%
17%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1941 |
LIV
6 - 1
ROM
40%
25%
36%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | -1 |
| 20 Apr. 1941 |
ROM
3 - 0
INT
42%
25%
33%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | +1 |