Novara vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.1%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
11%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.7%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.7%
19.1%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 1962 |
COM
1 - 1
NOV
51%
26%
23%
|
60 | 56 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 1962 |
USA
2 - 0
NOV
56%
25%
20%
|
61 | 62 | 1 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 1962 |
NOV
2 - 1
BRE
56%
25%
20%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 1962 |
NOV
2 - 1
NAP
50%
26%
24%
|
59 | 67 | 8 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 1962 |
ACP
2 - 2
NOV
54%
25%
21%
|
59 | 61 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 1962 |
LAZ
1 - 0
MOD
63%
21%
17%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 1962 |
MOD
2 - 0
ACP
50%
26%
24%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Feb. 1962 |
NAP
2 - 0
MOD
59%
24%
17%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | -1 |
| 28 Jan. 1962 |
MOD
1 - 0
COM
60%
23%
16%
|
60 | 55 | 5 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 1962 |
BAR
2 - 0
MOD
58%
24%
18%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | -1 |