Novara vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.5%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.9%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.8%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
32.9%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.2%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+22%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan. 1949 |
NOV
1 - 1
INT
27%
26%
47%
|
68 | 82 | 14 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 1949 |
ATL
3 - 1
NOV
60%
21%
19%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 1949 |
LAZ
2 - 1
NOV
67%
18%
15%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1948 |
ASL
5 - 1
NOV
56%
22%
22%
|
69 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 1948 |
NOV
1 - 2
GEN
34%
25%
42%
|
70 | 79 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan. 1949 |
MOD
4 - 0
ASL
47%
24%
29%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 1949 |
LIV
1 - 0
MOD
47%
25%
28%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 1949 |
MOD
0 - 2
TRI
48%
26%
27%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | -1 |
| 02 Jan. 1949 |
GEN
1 - 0
MOD
70%
17%
13%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1948 |
MOD
1 - 1
PRO
51%
23%
27%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |