Novara vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.4%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.5%
2-0
5.6%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.1%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.9%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
36.1%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.7%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.6%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.6%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+27%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 1938 |
NOV
0 - 1
TOR
37%
24%
39%
|
67 | 81 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 1938 |
LAZ
1 - 0
NOV
75%
14%
11%
|
67 | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 1938 |
NOV
1 - 3
BOL
26%
23%
50%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | -1 |
| 16 Oct. 1938 |
LIV
0 - 2
NOV
55%
21%
24%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | +1 |
| 09 Oct. 1938 |
NOV
2 - 0
BAR
50%
21%
29%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov. 1938 |
ACM
3 - 0
LAZ
49%
23%
28%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 1938 |
BOL
2 - 1
ACM
69%
19%
13%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | -1 |
| 30 Oct. 1938 |
ACM
2 - 2
LIV
66%
18%
16%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1938 |
BAR
2 - 1
ACM
38%
26%
36%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1938 |
ACM
1 - 2
GEN
53%
23%
24%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |