Novara vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.5%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.9%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.7%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.1%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
25%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
22.5%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 2005 |
NOV
1 - 0
FIA
50%
26%
24%
|
52 | 54 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2005 |
ACP
0 - 0
NOV
33%
27%
40%
|
52 | 44 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2005 |
NOV
1 - 1
SAS
54%
25%
21%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | -1 |
| 13 Feb. 2005 |
NOV
1 - 1
PAV
45%
26%
29%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2005 |
PRO
1 - 0
NOV
47%
27%
27%
|
53 | 56 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 2005 |
ASL
1 - 1
PRO
37%
29%
35%
|
51 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2005 |
SAS
3 - 0
ASL
41%
29%
30%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | -2 |
| 20 Feb. 2005 |
ASL
1 - 2
PAV
42%
28%
31%
|
53 | 55 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2005 |
ASL
1 - 2
USC
36%
28%
36%
|
54 | 58 | 4 | -1 |
| 13 Feb. 2005 |
ACP
1 - 1
ASL
33%
28%
40%
|
54 | 44 | 10 | 0 |