Novara vs Lecce analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.8%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.6%
3-0
2%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.6%
2-0
6%
3-1
2.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
8.5%
1-0
12%
2-1
6.7%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
20%
29.8%
Draw
0-0
12.2%
1-1
13.4%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
29.8%
38.3%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
13.6%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
22.6%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
10.8%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 1977 |
RIM
2 - 1
NOV
58%
22%
21%
|
53 | 56 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 May. 1977 |
VIC
1 - 1
NOV
70%
20%
10%
|
53 | 69 | 16 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1977 |
NOV
3 - 3
PES
38%
33%
29%
|
53 | 65 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1977 |
ATL
4 - 1
NOV
65%
23%
12%
|
53 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1977 |
NOV
0 - 0
BRE
45%
31%
24%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Lecce
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 May. 1977 |
VIC
0 - 0
LEC
57%
25%
18%
|
66 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 May. 1977 |
LEC
0 - 0
COM
52%
27%
21%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1977 |
SPA
0 - 0
LEC
44%
28%
28%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1977 |
LEC
1 - 1
RIM
68%
21%
11%
|
66 | 56 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1977 |
VAR
1 - 0
LEC
42%
29%
29%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | -1 |