Serie B Playoffs Semi-finals
Global 2-5
Novara vs Empoli analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.5%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.7%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.7%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
22.3%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2013 |
NOV
1 - 1
VIR
72%
18%
10%
|
75 | 62 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2013 |
LEO
1 - 2
NOV
11%
22%
67%
|
75 | 55 | 20 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2013 |
NOV
0 - 1
BAR
62%
22%
16%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | -1 |
| 27 Apr. 2013 |
PAD
3 - 3
NOV
27%
27%
46%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2013 |
NOV
0 - 1
MOD
68%
20%
13%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Empoli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2013 |
VER
0 - 0
EMP
53%
25%
23%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2013 |
EMP
1 - 0
CTT
68%
19%
13%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2013 |
VIC
1 - 5
EMP
29%
27%
44%
|
71 | 60 | 11 | +1 |
| 28 Apr. 2013 |
EMP
1 - 0
CES
60%
22%
18%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2013 |
SPE
3 - 0
EMP
36%
28%
37%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | -1 |