Novara vs Bologna analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.2%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.4%
2-0
8%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.7%
25.1%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 1951 |
FIO
1 - 1
NOV
64%
19%
16%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1951 |
NOV
1 - 2
ACM
22%
22%
56%
|
73 | 89 | 16 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 1951 |
TRI
3 - 0
NOV
50%
24%
26%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Jun. 1951 |
NOV
1 - 1
ATL
59%
21%
20%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1951 |
INT
5 - 0
NOV
84%
10%
6%
|
75 | 87 | 12 | -1 |
Matches
Bologna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 1951 |
BOL
1 - 4
NAP
59%
22%
20%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1951 |
BOL
1 - 0
UNI
65%
19%
16%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 1951 |
BOL
7 - 2
LAZ
49%
25%
27%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | +1 |
| 10 Jun. 1951 |
SAM
7 - 2
BOL
53%
23%
25%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | -1 |
| 27 May. 1951 |
BOL
1 - 0
TRI
61%
21%
19%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | +1 |