Novara vs Caldiero Terme analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.2%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
22.8%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
-26%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
36
6º
19º
6º
20
3º
19º
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
18º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 89 |
1º
|
58.5% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 86 |
2º
|
57% | |
|
3º
|
45 | 69 |
3º
|
86.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 59 |
4º
|
28% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 58 |
5º
|
19.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
36 | 57 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 56 |
7º
|
16.5% | |
|
12º
|
33 | 54 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 54 |
9º
|
12.5% | |
|
11º
|
33 | 51 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
34 | 49 |
11º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
34 | 49 |
12º
|
14% | |
|
14º
|
30 | 48 |
13º
|
14% | |
|
13º
|
31 | 47 |
14º
|
11.5% | |
|
15º
|
30 | 45 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
16º
|
26 | 44 |
16º
|
21% | |
|
17º
|
23 | 40 |
17º
|
31% | |
|
|
18º
|
20 | 32 |
18º
|
41.5% | |
|
19º
|
18 | 30 |
19º
|
32.5% | |
|
20º
|
15 | 27 |
20º
|
51.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
1.5% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
85% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
13.5% | 6.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 53.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 40% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2024 |
NOV
0 - 0
VIC
19%
25%
56%
|
56 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2024 |
GER
2 - 2
NOV
43%
27%
30%
|
56 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
NOV
2 - 0
ABN
47%
26%
27%
|
55 | 55 | 0 | +1 |
| 11 Oct. 2024 |
REN
0 - 1
NOV
43%
26%
31%
|
54 | 55 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
NOV
3 - 1
PER
51%
25%
24%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Caldiero Terme
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2024 |
CAL
1 - 0
GER
26%
26%
47%
|
51 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
REN
0 - 0
CAL
46%
26%
28%
|
51 | 53 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2024 |
CAL
1 - 1
PRO
35%
28%
37%
|
50 | 53 | 3 | +1 |
| 13 Oct. 2024 |
FER
2 - 0
CAL
70%
19%
11%
|
51 | 67 | 16 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 2024 |
CAL
0 - 3
VIR
42%
28%
31%
|
52 | 51 | 1 | -1 |