Novara vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.6%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
9.7%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.5%
2-0
14%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.6%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
18.8%
10.6%
Win probability
0.66
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.9%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2004 |
REG
0 - 0
NOV
32%
26%
42%
|
60 | 53 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2004 |
PIS
1 - 0
NOV
35%
26%
39%
|
61 | 57 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Jan. 2004 |
NOV
1 - 0
SPA
63%
22%
15%
|
60 | 56 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 Jan. 2004 |
ACP
2 - 2
NOV
30%
26%
44%
|
61 | 50 | 11 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 2003 |
NOV
0 - 0
CES
53%
25%
22%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2004 |
VAR
1 - 0
PIS
38%
29%
33%
|
51 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2004 |
PAV
0 - 1
VAR
53%
25%
23%
|
50 | 50 | 0 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 2004 |
VAR
0 - 2
RIM
39%
28%
33%
|
51 | 56 | 5 | -1 |
| 06 Jan. 2004 |
PIS
2 - 1
VAR
51%
27%
22%
|
52 | 57 | 5 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 2003 |
VAR
1 - 3
SAS
55%
25%
19%
|
53 | 47 | 6 | -1 |