Novara vs Pavia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.3%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.6%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
28.6%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.5%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2005 |
PRO
1 - 0
NOV
47%
27%
27%
|
54 | 58 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2005 |
NOV
0 - 1
ACL
48%
26%
26%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | -1 |
| 23 Jan. 2005 |
MAN
1 - 0
NOV
62%
22%
16%
|
55 | 64 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2005 |
NOV
1 - 0
PIS
49%
26%
25%
|
55 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 2005 |
ACS
2 - 0
NOV
36%
26%
38%
|
56 | 49 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Pavia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2005 |
PAV
1 - 2
FRO
38%
26%
36%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2005 |
FIA
2 - 2
PAV
40%
28%
32%
|
57 | 55 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2005 |
PAV
2 - 0
ACI
54%
24%
23%
|
56 | 54 | 2 | +1 |
| 16 Jan. 2005 |
PAV
0 - 2
MAN
34%
25%
41%
|
57 | 64 | 7 | -1 |
| 06 Jan. 2005 |
PAV
1 - 0
ACL
51%
24%
24%
|
56 | 56 | 0 | +1 |