Nova Mutum vs Tombense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
14.9%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.6%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
4.2%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
10.2%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.9%
65.2%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24.1%
0-2
11.1%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
19.8%
0-3
7.8%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.1%
0-4
4.1%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.8%
0-5
1.7%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.3%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nova Mutum
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2021 |
SOR
0 - 0
NME
21%
21%
57%
|
48 | 33 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2021 |
LUV
1 - 1
NME
38%
24%
38%
|
48 | 46 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 2021 |
NME
1 - 0
ACA
54%
22%
24%
|
48 | 40 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Dec. 2020 |
URO
0 - 1
NME
26%
23%
51%
|
47 | 39 | 8 | +1 |
| 20 Dec. 2020 |
NME
1 - 0
URO
57%
22%
21%
|
47 | 39 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Tombense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
TOM
1 - 0
URT
75%
17%
8%
|
61 | 44 | 17 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2021 |
COI
0 - 0
TOM
13%
19%
68%
|
61 | 43 | 18 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2021 |
TOM
1 - 2
ATM
17%
25%
59%
|
61 | 84 | 23 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2021 |
CAL
1 - 1
TOM
14%
24%
62%
|
62 | 43 | 19 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 2020 |
TOM
1 - 1
BOA
59%
25%
17%
|
62 | 55 | 7 | 0 |