Notts County vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.1%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.7%
23.2%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Notts County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 1919 |
DER
3 - 1
NOT
61%
22%
18%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1919 |
NOT
4 - 1
MAC
50%
26%
24%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 1919 |
NOT
2 - 2
SHE
42%
27%
32%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1919 |
MAC
4 - 1
NOT
64%
21%
15%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 20 Sep. 1919 |
NOT
3 - 1
SHW
49%
25%
26%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 1919 |
DER
3 - 1
NOT
61%
22%
18%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1919 |
BOL
3 - 0
DER
64%
20%
17%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1919 |
DER
1 - 2
BOL
52%
23%
26%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 Sep. 1919 |
NEW
0 - 0
DER
57%
23%
21%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1919 |
BRA
3 - 1
DER
55%
23%
22%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |