Notts County vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.2%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.2%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
10%
2-1
10%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.9%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.6%
19.2%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+19%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Notts County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 1912 |
BBU
2 - 1
NOT
70%
18%
12%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1912 |
NOT
1 - 2
SHW
38%
26%
36%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | -1 |
| 14 Sep. 1912 |
EVE
4 - 0
NOT
64%
21%
15%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 1912 |
NOT
1 - 1
WBA
60%
21%
19%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1912 |
NOT
0 - 1
MAC
55%
22%
23%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 1912 |
DER
0 - 2
MID
61%
20%
19%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1912 |
TOT
1 - 2
DER
63%
20%
17%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 1912 |
DER
1 - 4
EVE
49%
24%
28%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | -1 |
| 14 Sep. 1912 |
SUN
0 - 2
DER
79%
13%
8%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 07 Sep. 1912 |
DER
1 - 1
BBU
40%
24%
36%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |