Notts County vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.7%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
7%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.9%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
9%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
16.7%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.9%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Notts County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 1907 |
MAC
2 - 1
NOT
83%
11%
7%
|
73 | 82 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1907 |
NOT
1 - 2
BCF
60%
20%
20%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1907 |
WBA
3 - 1
NOT
70%
17%
13%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 1907 |
SHW
1 - 3
NOT
81%
12%
7%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | +1 |
| 23 Feb. 1907 |
NOT
4 - 0
TOT
40%
24%
36%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar. 1907 |
ASV
2 - 0
DER
89%
8%
4%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 1907 |
DER
1 - 1
SUN
43%
24%
33%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1907 |
PNE
1 - 0
DER
72%
17%
12%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1907 |
DER
2 - 3
BBU
54%
23%
23%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1907 |
WBA
2 - 0
DER
69%
17%
14%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | -1 |