Notch vs Arnett Gardens analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
5.6%
Win probability
0.51
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.1%
2-0
0.6%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
<0%
+2
0.9%
1-0
2.5%
2-1
1.6%
3-2
0.3%
4-3
<0%
+1
4.5%
13.5%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
2%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
13.5%
80.9%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
0-1
12.4%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
22.1%
0-2
15.5%
1-3
6.5%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
23.1%
0-3
12.9%
1-4
4.1%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
17.5%
0-4
8%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
10.3%
0-5
4%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
-5
4.9%
0-6
1.7%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
2%
0-7
0.6%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.7%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0%
-8
0.2%
0-9
0.1%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Notch
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 2016 |
DEP
3 - 0
NOT
80%
13%
6%
|
32 | 60 | 28 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2016 |
NOT
2 - 0
EXC
45%
23%
32%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | +2 |
| 08 Feb. 2016 |
INT
0 - 1
NOT
56%
22%
22%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2016 |
NOT
1 - 2
TRA
50%
24%
26%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2016 |
NIS
3 - 0
NOT
48%
22%
30%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Arnett Gardens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 2016 |
ARN
3 - 0
AME
67%
20%
13%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2016 |
ARN
0 - 0
RIV
69%
20%
11%
|
71 | 58 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2016 |
ARN
6 - 0
REN
65%
21%
14%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2016 |
CAV
0 - 1
ARN
23%
26%
51%
|
71 | 61 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2016 |
ARN
1 - 1
TRI
66%
21%
13%
|
71 | 61 | 10 | 0 |