Northern AFC vs Otago University analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
2.6%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
2.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
0.1%
+2
6.5%
1-0
2.7%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
12.7%
18.7%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
2.8%
4-4
0.7%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
18.7%
58.3%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
5.4%
3-4
1.8%
4-5
0.3%
5-6
0%
-1
20.4%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
7%
2-4
3.4%
3-5
0.9%
4-6
0.1%
5-7
0%
-2
16.9%
0-3
4.5%
1-4
4.4%
2-5
1.7%
3-6
0.4%
4-7
0.1%
-3
11%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
2.2%
2-6
0.7%
3-7
0.1%
4-8
0%
-4
5.9%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.3%
3-8
0%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0.1%
3-9
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Northern AFC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
NAF
5 - 5
MOS
42%
20%
38%
|
17 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
NAF
12 - 0
WAF
77%
13%
10%
|
17 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2023 |
NAF
1 - 2
ROW
21%
18%
61%
|
17 | 25 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 2022 |
GIA
5 - 1
NAF
62%
18%
20%
|
17 | 23 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2022 |
QPA
1 - 4
NAF
67%
17%
16%
|
16 | 21 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Otago University
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
GIA
0 - 1
OTU
21%
18%
61%
|
29 | 15 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
GER
1 - 3
OTU
12%
15%
74%
|
28 | 9 | 19 | +1 |
| 17 Jun. 2023 |
ROW
1 - 0
OTU
31%
21%
49%
|
29 | 25 | 4 | -1 |
| 03 Jun. 2023 |
MOS
0 - 4
OTU
17%
17%
66%
|
29 | 17 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2022 |
OTU
0 - 4
GIA
56%
20%
24%
|
30 | 23 | 7 | -1 |