North Geelong Warriors vs South Melbourne analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
6.6%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.7%
3-1
0.4%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
1.3%
1-0
2.3%
2-1
2%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
5%
13.2%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
0
13.2%
80.3%
Win probability
2.66
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.9%
0-2
13.1%
1-3
7.4%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
22.2%
0-3
11.6%
1-4
4.9%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
17.4%
0-4
7.7%
1-5
2.6%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
10.8%
0-5
4.1%
1-6
1.2%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
5.4%
0-6
1.8%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0%
-6
2.3%
0-7
0.7%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.9%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0%
-8
0.3%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
14
2º
14º
14º
62
1º
3º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
67 | 67 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
62 | 62 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
58 | 58 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 47 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
45 | 45 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
41 | 41 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
40 | 40 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
33 | 33 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
31 | 31 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
28 | 28 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
22 | 22 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 16 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
15 | 15 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
|
14º
|
14 | 14 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Next round
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
North Geelong Warriors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Aug. 2023 |
NGW
2 - 4
OAK
5%
11%
83%
|
12 | 43 | 31 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
STA
2 - 0
NGW
69%
17%
13%
|
12 | 19 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
NGW
0 - 0
HEU
7%
12%
80%
|
11 | 26 | 15 | +1 |
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
DAN
6 - 0
NGW
88%
8%
4%
|
12 | 26 | 14 | -1 |
| 09 Jul. 2023 |
NGW
0 - 3
MEL
8%
14%
77%
|
13 | 32 | 19 | -1 |
Matches
South Melbourne
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 2023 |
HEU
2 - 1
SOU
14%
22%
65%
|
44 | 27 | 17 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2023 |
AVH
2 - 1
SOU
44%
25%
31%
|
45 | 44 | 1 | -1 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
ALM
1 - 4
SOU
15%
23%
62%
|
45 | 30 | 15 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2023 |
POR
0 - 4
SOU
34%
27%
39%
|
43 | 39 | 4 | +2 |
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
BEN
0 - 2
SOU
11%
18%
70%
|
43 | 21 | 22 | 0 |