NK Tolmin vs Aluminij analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.4%
2-0
3%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.3%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
56.4%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
12.2%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.9%
0-2
10.5%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.4%
0-3
6.1%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.9%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.6%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.2%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-16%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
11
6º
16º
16º
33
1º
8º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
33 | 60 |
1º
|
40% | |
|
|
2º
|
33 | 60 |
2º
|
30% | |
|
3º
|
32 | 56 |
3º
|
24% | |
|
5º
|
29 | 53 |
4º
|
24.5% | |
|
4º
|
30 | 51 |
5º
|
18% | |
|
7º
|
25 | 49 |
6º
|
21% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 44 |
7º
|
23% | |
|
6º
|
26 | 44 |
8º
|
25% | |
|
10º
|
20 | 36 |
9º
|
18% | |
|
11º
|
18 | 36 |
10º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
21 | 34 |
11º
|
15.5% | |
|
12º
|
14 | 30 |
12º
|
17% | |
|
13º
|
14 | 29 |
13º
|
14.5% | |
|
14º
|
13 | 28 |
14º
|
17% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 27 |
15º
|
23% | |
|
|
16º
|
11 | 23 |
16º
|
45% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 44% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 30% |
|
Mid-table
|
30.5% | 26% |
|
Relegation
|
69.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
NK Tolmin
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
TOL
4 - 1
TOL
44%
25%
31%
|
52 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
TOL
0 - 1
DEK
56%
23%
21%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2024 |
NKI
1 - 2
TOL
9%
14%
77%
|
52 | 20 | 32 | +1 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
TOL
1 - 1
NSV
43%
24%
33%
|
52 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
KRK
1 - 2
TOL
56%
22%
22%
|
51 | 54 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Aluminij
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 2024 |
ALU
2 - 1
KRK
62%
22%
17%
|
64 | 55 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
BIL
2 - 0
ALU
20%
24%
57%
|
65 | 52 | 13 | -1 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
ALU
1 - 2
TAS
68%
20%
12%
|
65 | 55 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
DRA
2 - 3
ALU
25%
25%
50%
|
65 | 53 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
ALU
2 - 1
BIS
65%
21%
14%
|
64 | 53 | 11 | +1 |