Nice vs Toulouse analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.5%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.2%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
25.9%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
27.7%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.5%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
8º
13º
8º
5
9º
15º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
12 | 80 |
1º
|
82.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 68 |
2º
|
36% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 64 |
3º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 58 |
4º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 58 |
5º
|
18.5% | |
|
4º
|
8 | 57 |
6º
|
18% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 56 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
4 | 47 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
|
11º
|
5 | 45 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
6º
|
7 | 44 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
5 | 42 |
11º
|
9.5% | |
|
14º
|
3 | 41 |
12º
|
11% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 38 |
13º
|
12% | |
|
15º
|
3 | 34 |
14º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 33 |
15º
|
12% | |
|
5º
|
7 | 32 |
16º
|
16% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 31 |
17º
|
18% | |
|
17º
|
1 | 25 |
18º
|
52.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0.5% |
|
Champions League
|
1% | 0.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
3% | 0.5% |
|
Europa League
|
3% | 2% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
4% | 3.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
83.5% | 89% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
2% | 2.5% |
|
Relegation
|
3.5% | 1.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nice
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
AUX
2 - 1
NIC
31%
26%
43%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
IPS
1 - 0
NIC
43%
25%
33%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
LEC
2 - 3
NIC
41%
26%
34%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
RIZ
2 - 2
NIC
37%
26%
37%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2024 |
NIC
2 - 2
LEG
63%
23%
14%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Toulouse
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
TFC
0 - 0
NAN
64%
21%
15%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
TFC
0 - 2
VAD
52%
23%
25%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
ESP
0 - 0
TFC
43%
25%
32%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
GIR
0 - 4
TFC
66%
19%
15%
|
84 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
ROM
0 - 1
TFC
71%
18%
11%
|
84 | 93 | 9 | 0 |