Nice vs Lens analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.6%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
3.7%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.2%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.1%
26.5%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.5%
34.9%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
37
3º
13º
5º
33
3º
9º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 85 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
40 | 67 |
2º
|
60.5% | |
|
4º
|
37 | 63 |
3º
|
30.5% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 59 |
4º
|
24% | |
|
|
3º
|
37 | 58 |
5º
|
24% | |
|
8º
|
30 | 54 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
33 | 54 |
7º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
23.5% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 45 |
9º
|
21% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 44 |
10º
|
23.5% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 42 |
11º
|
23% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 38 |
12º
|
18.5% | |
|
14º
|
22 | 37 |
13º
|
21% | |
|
13º
|
23 | 35 |
14º
|
21% | |
|
15º
|
21 | 33 |
15º
|
25% | |
|
18º
|
15 | 30 |
16º
|
23% | |
|
16º
|
18 | 30 |
17º
|
18.5% | |
|
17º
|
17 | 26 |
18º
|
54% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
24.5% | 6.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
16.5% | 12% |
|
Europa League
|
24% | 18.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
20% | 17% |
|
Mid-table
|
15% | 46% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nice
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2025 |
STA
2 - 1
NIC
12%
22%
65%
|
90 | 62 | 28 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
TFC
1 - 1
NIC
39%
26%
35%
|
90 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2025 |
NIC
1 - 1
BOG
52%
23%
25%
|
90 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
NIC
2 - 0
MAR
29%
25%
46%
|
89 | 93 | 4 | +1 |
| 23 Jan. 2025 |
ELF
1 - 0
NIC
27%
25%
48%
|
90 | 81 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Lens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
MPL
0 - 2
LEN
29%
25%
46%
|
91 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
LEN
1 - 0
ANG
71%
18%
10%
|
91 | 81 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
LEN
1 - 2
PSG
19%
21%
60%
|
91 | 96 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
LHA
1 - 2
LEN
18%
24%
58%
|
91 | 79 | 12 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
LEN
0 - 1
TFC
59%
22%
19%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |