Newtown vs Colwyn Bay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.2%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.7%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.4%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
18.7%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.7%
12.1%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.7%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-38%
+20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
3º
11º
5º
14
9º
12º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
70% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
30% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newtown
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
NEW
3 - 1
PON
70%
19%
11%
|
67 | 55 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
PEN
1 - 1
NEW
43%
25%
32%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | -1 |
| 14 Nov. 2023 |
ABE
0 - 1
NEW
18%
22%
60%
|
68 | 54 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
NEW
1 - 1
COL
75%
16%
9%
|
67 | 51 | 16 | +1 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
NEW
0 - 2
TNS
42%
25%
33%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Colwyn Bay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2023 |
COL
2 - 3
CON
25%
26%
50%
|
55 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2023 |
COL
2 - 1
PEN
21%
24%
55%
|
53 | 67 | 14 | +2 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
PON
0 - 3
COL
54%
23%
23%
|
52 | 56 | 4 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
NEW
1 - 1
COL
75%
16%
9%
|
51 | 67 | 16 | +1 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
HAV
5 - 0
COL
58%
22%
20%
|
52 | 59 | 7 | -1 |