Newtown vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.2%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.2%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.6%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.3%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
28.1%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
16.3%
0-2
4%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-17%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
44
4º
6º
4º
41
2º
5º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
92 | 30 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
51 | 14 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 12 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
44 | 11 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
41 | 10 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 5 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newtown
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
BAL
1 - 1
NEW
44%
26%
30%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
CON
0 - 0
NEW
48%
24%
27%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
NEW
0 - 1
TNS
38%
25%
38%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | -1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
NEW
2 - 0
CAR
43%
26%
30%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | +1 |
| 01 Mar. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 0
NEW
43%
24%
33%
|
63 | 60 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
TNS
7 - 1
CAE
66%
18%
16%
|
62 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 2
CAR
47%
25%
28%
|
62 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2024 |
CAE
2 - 1
CON
43%
25%
32%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 2024 |
BAL
1 - 1
CAE
49%
25%
27%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2024 |
CAE
1 - 0
NEW
43%
24%
33%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | +1 |