Newtown vs Bala Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.4%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.4%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
25.2%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
3º
11º
5º
37
2º
6º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
70% | 92% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
30% | 8% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newtown
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep. 2023 |
PON
0 - 1
NEW
23%
24%
53%
|
64 | 57 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
COL
2 - 4
NEW
22%
23%
55%
|
64 | 53 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
NEW
2 - 0
BAR
70%
19%
11%
|
63 | 52 | 11 | +1 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
HAV
0 - 4
NEW
33%
26%
42%
|
62 | 59 | 3 | +1 |
| 01 Sep. 2023 |
NEW
2 - 1
CAR
39%
28%
34%
|
61 | 67 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Bala Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
BAL
0 - 1
ABE
71%
18%
11%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
BAR
3 - 1
BAL
22%
25%
54%
|
64 | 52 | 12 | -1 |
| 19 Sep. 2023 |
GUI
1 - 0
BAL
12%
18%
71%
|
65 | 46 | 19 | -1 |
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
PON
0 - 0
BAL
25%
26%
50%
|
65 | 56 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2023 |
BAL
0 - 0
TNS
41%
25%
34%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | 0 |