Inter-Cities Fairs Cup Quarter-finals
Global 6-4
Newcastle vs Vitória Setúbal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.2%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.9%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
21.8%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.8%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1969 |
NEW
1 - 0
BUR
43%
25%
32%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1969 |
WHU
3 - 1
NEW
70%
18%
13%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1969 |
SOU
0 - 0
NEW
61%
20%
19%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1969 |
NEW
0 - 0
MAC
47%
24%
29%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 1969 |
NEW
2 - 1
ARS
40%
28%
33%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Vitória Setúbal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 1969 |
VST
1 - 1
LEX
83%
13%
5%
|
82 | 63 | 19 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1969 |
SAN
1 - 4
VST
16%
28%
55%
|
82 | 55 | 27 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1969 |
UFT
0 - 0
VST
30%
24%
46%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1969 |
VST
3 - 0
SPB
83%
13%
5%
|
82 | 62 | 20 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 1969 |
BEL
0 - 2
VST
28%
27%
45%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | +1 |