Newcastle vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
11.4%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.4%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.6%
1-0
3.5%
2-1
3.3%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.1%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.3%
71.2%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.2%
0-2
11.8%
1-3
7.4%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.1%
0-3
9.1%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.3%
0-4
5.3%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7.6%
0-5
2.4%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.3%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
10
3º
8º
7º
12
1º
3º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
2º
|
12 | 97 |
1º
|
86.5% | |
|
1º
|
12 | 84 |
2º
|
50.5% | |
|
5º
|
10 | 80 |
3º
|
36.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 68 |
4º
|
18.5% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 65 |
5º
|
19.5% | |
|
10º
|
7 | 62 |
6º
|
20.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
10 | 62 |
7º
|
16% | |
|
3º
|
12 | 61 |
8º
|
13.5% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 55 |
9º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 50 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 47 |
11º
|
12% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 45 |
12º
|
14% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 43 |
13º
|
13% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 39 |
14º
|
14% | |
|
15º
|
3 | 37 |
15º
|
12.5% | |
|
19º
|
1 | 36 |
16º
|
15% | |
|
9º
|
8 | 36 |
17º
|
15% | |
|
20º
|
1 | 35 |
18º
|
13.5% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 30 |
19º
|
17.5% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 28 |
20º
|
34.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 86.5% |
|
Champions League
|
20.5% | 13.5% |
|
Europa League
|
10% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
69.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
FUL
3 - 1
NEW
26%
23%
51%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
WOL
1 - 2
NEW
22%
23%
55%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
NEW
2 - 1
TOT
38%
24%
38%
|
93 | 94 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2024 |
NTT
1 - 1
NEW
19%
22%
59%
|
93 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
BOU
1 - 1
NEW
23%
23%
54%
|
93 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2024 |
MAC
0 - 0
INT
66%
18%
15%
|
100 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
MAC
2 - 1
BRE
87%
9%
3%
|
100 | 90 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
WHU
1 - 3
MAC
10%
16%
74%
|
100 | 91 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
MAC
4 - 1
IPS
90%
8%
2%
|
100 | 83 | 17 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
CHL
0 - 2
MAC
14%
19%
68%
|
100 | 94 | 6 | 0 |