Newcastle vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.9%
Win probability
1.99
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.9%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
16%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21.7%
25.4%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 1930 |
MID
3 - 1
NEW
57%
21%
23%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1930 |
NEW
0 - 4
LIV
60%
20%
20%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1930 |
BOL
0 - 3
NEW
55%
22%
24%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1930 |
NEW
4 - 2
WHU
53%
21%
26%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1930 |
NEW
2 - 2
BIR
58%
21%
21%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 1930 |
DER
4 - 2
ARS
60%
20%
21%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1930 |
OPA
2 - 0
DER
45%
24%
31%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1930 |
DER
1 - 1
MAC
66%
18%
17%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1930 |
DER
1 - 0
GRI
72%
16%
13%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1930 |
DER
4 - 1
SUN
67%
18%
15%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |